On December 23^rd, 1915, the dawn of the winter solstice, Yuan Shikai arrived at the Temple of Heaven in an armored car. Carried into the building on an imperial sedan chair, he donned the sacred robes of an emperor performing a sacrifice, and prayed that Heaven show mercy to his people.

Had Yuan been a legitimate Emperor, the ceremony might have met with approval. However, Yuan was the President of the new and besieged Chinese Republic. As such, the ritual proved Yuan's imperial aspirations, and his betrayal of the hopes that so many Chinese had fought and died for. Yuan's subsequent move to have himself enthroned catalyzed the breakdown of an already tenuous government, and ushered in the dark Era of Warlords. His story embodies China's agonizing transition from ancient to modern precepts of authority.

Japan's 1906 victory in its war with Russia gave the Chinese hope that they too might someday achieve the same level of autonomy and resistance to the West. A growing wave of intellectuals and returned students from abroad derided China for surrendering its birthright to Western powers. Long-dormant Chinese nationalism was stirring, ‘China for the Chinese' its slogan.

Yuan Shikai was emblematic of this new mood. Displaying both military and diplomatic genius, he had risen to preeminence in the Qing administration, masterfully playing off the thousand intrigues of Dowager Empress Cixi and her splintered court. As a result, by 1908 he was the most powerful man in China not of royal blood. He had been the governor of Shandong, the viceroy of Zhili, and the minister of Beiyang. More importantly, he commanded China's most powerful fighting force, the Northern Army, highly trained and equipped.

At the time, he would no doubt have been canny enough to deny any imperial aspirations. Nonetheless, the Manchu court anticipated them. Otherwise the death of Emperor Guangxu and Cixi within a day of each other might have been a perfect opportunity for Yuan to make a play for the throne. But an imperial decree indirectly stripped him of all power, recommending he resign all current offices in order to go home and care for his gouty foot.

Yuan did indeed ‘retire', to Tianjing and his Garden for Cultivating Longevity, ironically stocked with sufficient wives and concubines to give him 16 sons and 14 daughters. There he would wait for three years for the opportunity to return to China's center stage.

By 1911, the Manchu had formed an administrative cabinet, modeling Japan's obvious success in having an absolute monarch governing through a constitutional framework. The progress halted on October 10^th, when a bomb blew apart a house in the Russian concession of Hankou, Hubei's main port. The house was a weapons cache for conspirators in the local Qing garrison. Once discovered, they grabbed their guns and seized nearby Wuhan. The anti-Qing revolution had begun.

Although easily contained by loyal Qing troops, the Wuhan rebels triggered mutinies and uprisings across China. Virtually all Chinese with an informed opinion sided with the revolutionaries. Last Emperor Pu Yi was too young to care, but acting regent Prince Chun saw the predicament of his minority House. Yuan Shikai suddenly received a letter of royal stamp informing him that he was now the Viceroy of Hubei and Hunan, and officially entrusted with quelling the rebels. Had he the lack of wit to agree, Yuan never would have risen past stable boy in the Qing court. Instead, he granted the revolutionaries an audience. They offered to make him President of the Chinese Republic should the revolution succeed.

With typical cunning, Yuan devised a third way. He informed Prince Chun that he and his foot would make a comeback only were he made supreme commander of China's armed forces, adequately funded and supplied. Moreover, the royal cabinet of Manchu princes would have to be replaced with a more representative one, a national assembly set up within the year, and the revolutionaries pardoned.

While Prince Chun vacillated, Yuan stayed at home pulling strings. He had his army recapture Hankou and Wuhan. The Manchu court received a demand from the 20^th division of Yuan's North China army that a constitutional monarchy be set up within a year. The show of potential might swayed Prince Chun to announce his abdication as Regent, and on November 1Yuan was appointed Prime Minister.  

One of his first acts, at the behest of new Dowager Empress Lungyu, was to negotiate a settlement with the revolutionaries. Despite his restoration, Yuan was anything but committed to Manchu interests. Revolutionary leader Dr. Wu Tingfang had drawn up a four point peace plan which demanded Manchu abdication, establishment of a republic, a pension for the emperor, and a fund for aged and poor Manchus. Yuan sent his right hand man, Tang Shaoyi, to Shanghai to discuss the plan with Dr Wu and the revolutionaries. A queue-less Tang soon convinced the Republicans that both Yuan and he sympathized with the cause.

With the Qing ready to surrender all but nominal power, Yuan was again in position to claim China's top spot, whatever his assignation. Yet again he demurred, claiming that after all his faithful service to the Manchus, he would never consent to going on record as a usurper. Thus, despite the attempts of the Republicans to confer the honor on Yuan, Sun Yat-sen was sworn in as the first president of a China turned republic by imperial decree.

Those shocked by Yuan's refusal might have sniffed out the larger plan when Sun gave his first speech as president. Sun made hardly any mention of duties or plans, instead taking pains to set a timeline for his departure:

" I will faithfully obey the wishes of the citizens, be loyal to the nation and perform my duty in the interest of the public, until the downfall of the despotic government...then I shall relinquish the office of provisional president. I hereby swear this before the citizens."

Immediately after the speech, Sun telegraphed Yuan to confirm his promise to stand down once Yuan announced his support for the republic.

But Yuan would not accept the presidency until the wishes of the Manchus had been added to the Convention to establish the republic. A keen student of history, he knew that true Chinese authority devolved from Heaven to the Son of Heaven. Yuan wanted the public perception that his authority was divine; the masses he would govern had no concept of rule by consent. Besides, his concept of power was that of a professional soldier and courtier. He had no abiding love of republicanism, but expediency demanded he make a good play of it, as he wrote:

"If we are to elevate our people to the status of citizen of a republic, we must use law to assist virtue. Having consulted scholars of various countries, I come to this definition: a republican government is one that has an all-embracing system of laws based on the wishes of all and to be strictly observed by all."

However, in a subsequent policy speech, he made a revealing statement about his real conception of how political power worked:

" If one compares the system of constitutional monarchy, which restricts the power of a king, with one or another of the various systems that our people want to try in China, one must come to the conclusion that the former is the only lasting solution... all I am trying to do is prevent China from breaking into pieces."

Yuan needed as much careful preservation as republican China. On the cusp of a newly ratified government, 68 officers of the Northern Army came out in support of the Qing dynasty, just as Yuan was in the final stages of receiving ‘legitimate' power from the Son of Heaven. Days later, a revolutionary cell attempted to assassinate Yuan as he returned from presenting a memorial to the Dowager Empress. Revolutionary party members threw four homemade bombs at his carriage, not realizing that his memorial had strongly urged the Manchus to abdicate. Twelve guards were killed, but none hit the carriage directly.

Yuan used the assassination attempt to launch a string of endgame moves worthy of a grandmaster. He publicly blamed the revolutionaries in Shanghai for the attack, and left Beijing to ‘recuperate'. His absence gained him huge advantage, what with the Revolutionaries not in on the plot now on the defensive, and the Manchu court deprived of their chief advocate.

His next move was to propose a provisional government in Tianjin upon the abdication, imitating the revolutionaries in giving the country the symbol of a new start. After that, he saw to it that a telegram from more than 40 high-ranking officers of his Northern Army, many who had recently pledged loyalty to the dynasty, reached the Dowager Empress personally. The message called for the immediate abdication of Pu Yi, and not so subtly threatened his and the Empress' life should he fail to do so. His last play took the form of an edict in the Dowager Empress' name, which would end more than 250 years' dynastic rule.

Having achieved mate and match, the Prime Minister led his cabinet into the Forbidden City for a last tribute to the Manchu, and to oversee the final moments of an empire. The Empress read Yuan's decree, choking back sobs as her courtiers wailed and gnashed their teeth.

"We hereby hand over the sovereignty to the people as a whole and declare that the constitution shall henceforth be republican. Yuan Shikai, having been elected Prime minister some time ago by the Political Consultative Council, is able at this time of change to unite the north and the south. Let him then, with the full power so to do, organize a provisional republican government... that peace may be assured to the people and that the complete integrity of the territories of the five races - Hans, Manchus, Mongols, Muhammadans and Tibetans - is at the same time maintained in a great state under the title of the Republic of China."

Now Yuan's only obstacle to primacy was Sun, loudly voicing his belief that Yuan's Manchu power transfer was illegitimate, and that the new government should be centered in Nanjing. Although he had had his queue ceremoniously clipped, and previously promised a new Nanjing capital, Yuan wasn't about to abandon Beijing, claiming his presence in the North was necessary to national unity.

To persuade China this was so, and to dispose of Sun, Yuan devised a classic false flag operation. Just as a delegation from Sun arrived in Beijing to press for the move to Nanjing, there came a sudden ‘mutiny' from Yuan's formerly most loyal units in the Northern Army. They tore through Beijing, burning and looting, and even threatening the foreign legations for maximum international effect. The delegation summarily withdrew its demands, and Yuan was inaugurated second provisional president of the Republic of China. The ceremony took place in the Imperial Palace, with the Manchus still packing their personal effects.

The first threat to his presidency soon arrived in the form of a new revolutionary party formed from several old ones, the Kuomintang, or ‘National People's Party'. On its inception, the Kuomintang issued a manifesto promising "to adopt the principles of social service to prepare the way for the introduction of socialism in order to facilitate and better the standard of living, and to employ the powers and strength of the Government quickly and evenly to develop the resources of our country".

These socialist ideals were meaningless to a strong-man such as Yuan, who was facing an empty treasury and a fractured nation. Soon the everyday operations of the fledgling government were mired in Kuomintang and Republican plotting, although none could yet rival Asian Machiavelli Yuan.

To prevent foreign jackals from descending on his nascent state, he turned to America, which had been the least predacious of the foreign powers. Washington officially recognized the Chinese republic, and sent esteemed scholar Professor Frank Goodnow to help write China's new constitution. Other international administrative experts arrived, but China's greatest need was for a substantial international loan.

During China's era of humiliation, loans had been arranged through the Shanghai &Hong Kong bank, the fiduciary arm of British, French, Russian, German, and Japanese exploitation. In predictable fashion, the Five Powers attached to loan documents a list of demands that would leave China essentially as economically beholden to foreign powers as it had been under the Manchu.

Still, Yuan found it expedient to accede to the demands, despite abjuration from the Kuomintang, whom he in turn blamed for the endless delays in getting the new government on its feet. On March 20, 1913, the Kuomintang's chairman, Sung Qiaozen, set off to Beijing to intervene, but was assassinated at the Shanghai train station. Within a few days, evidence surfaced tying Yuan to the murder. Sung became an instant martyr for the Republican cause, and a symbol of Yuan's dictatorial style and weakness in the face of foreign pressure. Sun Yat-sen added to the disgrace, attacking Yuan's handling of the loan and affirming his belief that Yuan had been behind the assassination. He called on his followers to break with ‘Dictator Yuan'.

In response, a widespread rebellion broke out in the Yangtze valley. Yuan quickly put it down, and promised that he would smash Sun and his associates if they dared continue to "be a nuisance". Despite overwhelming opposition to the Five Powers' loan, Yuan finished the paperwork. Sun declared Yuan's actions unconstitutional and sent a public telegram demanding Yuan resign.

The Kuomintang for their part declared Nanjing independent, and launched a punitive expedition against the president. Four provinces - Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Guangdong - joined the revolt. The coalition fared badly against the government forces, who were paid and equipped by the Five-Powers loan. After putting down the revolt in a now smoldering Nanjing, Yuan's men surrounded Beijing's Parliament building and refused to leave until the Assembly elected a permanent president. Unsurprisingly, Yuan was the only choice. His first act was to outlaw the Kuomintang.

If he had his internal enemies briefly at bay, Yuan had a much more powerful adversary in Japan. In 1914, Japan was on the ascendant as an empire. A robust constitutional monarchy, Japan had annexed Korea in 1911 and was pushing into Mongolia from its holdings in Manchuria. The most callow political observer could have divined Japan's intentions for China as a massive resource base and colony. To exacerbate matters, Sun Yat-sen now had his base in Tokyo, and was proposing cooperation with Japan on all fronts, an alternative to Yuan's Five Powers-version of foreign subjugation. Japan had a massive army and navy, and needed only a reason to step up its activities in China.

Archduke Ferdinand's assassination provided the excuse. Japan presented Germany with an ultimatum - withdraw all armed vessels from the waters of Japan and the China Sea, and hand over German concessions in China to Japan. The ultimatum included some vague words about eventually returning the colony to China, but no one, least of all Yuan, was taken in.

Yuan, who had been savvy enough to declare neutrality in the European conflict, now pleaded with Britain to secure Germany's colony for China. But Britain valued its alliance with Japan more, and joined Japan in attacking Qingdao on September 26^th. By November 7^th, the Germans had been scattered, and the Japanese flag soon appeared on every public building in Qingdao. The Japanese followed their victory with a list of 21 demands as exploitative as any China had ever had from Western powers. On presenting the list to Yuan, Ambassador Hioki had the gall to bang his walking stick on Yuan's dining table and forbid refusal on threat of open war.

Yuan remained composed, not deigning to reply immediately. He had a new agenda, one that had probably long been close to his heart, but that now inexplicably seemed the best time to implement. He would be emperor of a new Chinese monarchy, albeit one he hoped Japan would support.

Therefore, even after the demands went public, Yuan still refused to reject them. Amidst ever mounting public fury at Japan's temerity, Yuan called a meeting to tell his ministers that China no choice but to accept the demands. "This is both sad and humiliating," Yuan said, "but let us all remember it and do our best to wipe out this disgrace."

Meanwhile, he pressed on with his newly formed monarchist cabal, which made every effort at manufacturing support amongst tame provincial governors and generals. Within a month, some 2000 bought-off representatives appeared in Beijng to request Yuan's ascension to the throne. The State Council even presented a memorial referring to him as "Your Holy Majesty".

In true Chinese fashion, Yuan at first declined the honor, only acceding when a second memorial came within an hour of his refusal. Thus was the Grand Constitutional Era on proclaimed on the eve of 1916, in preparation for a formal enthronement.

Outraged, Yunnan declared its independence, and general Cai E led his Yunnan army into Sichuan. Yuan took this first response to his constitutional monarchy in stride, predicting the rebellion's death within twenty days. However, eight other provinces joined the revolt, and intelligence soon informed him that unless he renounced the throne, all of southern China would rise against him.

Despite the threat, Yuan lingered a while longer in his royal dream, engaging in dress rehearsals for his coronation with a passel of wives and concubines. Yet his rapidly crumbling power base, the disarray of his army and the rising tide of nation-wide revolt against his imperial decree, all finally brought him to his senses. After less than three months as ‘Emperor', Yuan proclaimed the abolition of his rule.

He retained a dim hope of being re-instated as president, but hero du jour General Cai insisted that Yuan step down immediately. The old chess master was mated, but continued to cling to whatever power he had, promising sweeping reforms and transfer of powers to his cabinet.

The struggle took an amazingly rapid toll on Yuan's health. His sorry state reflected China's precarious condition, as both the Bank of China and Bank of Communications stopped paying silver on demand, and confidence in Chinese scrip plummeted. By the end of May, Yuan had lost all but familial support and languished in his sick room. On June 6^th, barely half a year after proclaiming himself the Son of Heaven, he died, aged fifty six.

Despite succeeding presidents and efforts at re-unification, China continued its degeneration into an ongoing Battle Royale of rival factions, all changing allegiances with the easy morals of warlords whose only objective is naked power. And despite only a brief time at the top, not until Mao Zedong would there be another living embodiment of unified China like Yuan Shikai.